农林牧渔行业研究报告：猪价淡季支撑强，布局周期反转

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" as the expected index growth relative to the CSI 300 index is projected to exceed 10% within the next six months [45]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is experiencing a price increase driven by secondary fattening, although supply remains ample and consumer demand is weak, leading to a forecast of fluctuating prices in the short term [39][41]. - The white feather chicken sector is expected to see a cyclical reversal due to supply contraction and the recovery of pig prices, with recommendations for industry leaders that have full supply chain advantages [41]. - The seed industry is poised to benefit from the commercialization of genetically modified corn and soybeans, with companies that have strong technology reserves expected to lead [41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming Data - The average price of pigs is reported at 15.04 CNY/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.62% [5][13]. - The total pig output in 2023 was 726 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 3.81% [5]. - The average price of piglets is 45.28 CNY/kg, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase of 16.50% [13]. - The report highlights that the current breeding sector valuation is at a historical low, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies with clear output growth and strong performance capabilities, such as Wen's Food Group and Muyuan Foods [5][41]. White Feather Chicken Data - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.72 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.64% [7][13]. - The report notes an expansion of losses in white feather chicken farming, with a loss of 2.83 CNY per bird [7]. - Recommendations are made for industry leaders like Shennong Development, which have advantages in the entire supply chain and are leading the domestic replacement of chicken breeds [41]. Agricultural Products Data - The average price of corn is reported at 2.59 CNY/kg, with no change month-on-month but a year-on-year decrease of 13.09% [13]. - The average price of wheat is 2,759.39 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.29% [13]. - The report emphasizes the potential for companies in the seed industry to benefit from the first licenses for genetically modified crops, suggesting a focus on companies with strong genetic technology reserves [41].