Capital Securities·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2]. Core Views - The company achieved record high revenue and net profit in 2023, with a total revenue of 186.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.25 billion yuan, up 35.98% year-on-year. The company also sold 80% of its stake in the NPM copper mine, focusing on core assets [2]. - The company is set to see significant growth in copper and cobalt production with the commissioning of two world-class copper-cobalt mines. In 2023, copper production reached 419,500 tons and cobalt production reached 55,500 tons, representing year-on-year increases of 51% and 174%, respectively. The company aims to produce over 520,000 tons of copper and over 60,000 tons of cobalt in 2024 [2]. - The company has substantial resource potential in its Congo copper-cobalt mines, with a total resource of 34.64 million tons of copper and 5.25 million tons of cobalt as of 2023. The company plans to enhance exploration efforts and initiate resource expansion plans [2]. - Supply growth is limited while demand continues to rise, suggesting that copper prices are likely to steadily increase. The company is expected to benefit significantly from this trend [2]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 200.31 billion yuan, 199.20 billion yuan, and 200.29 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 10.79 billion yuan, 11.37 billion yuan, and 11.95 billion yuan for the same years [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 186.27 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.25 billion yuan, with significant growth in Q4, where revenue reached 54.59 billion yuan, up 34.72% year-on-year, and net profit soared to 5.81 billion yuan, up 547.79% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.50 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.49 [3]. Production Outlook - The company plans to ramp up copper production to over 520,000 tons in 2024, an increase of over 100,000 tons from 2023, and aims for cobalt production to exceed 60,000 tons [2]. - The company’s copper and cobalt mines in Congo have a combined resource of 34.64 million tons of copper and 5.25 million tons of cobalt, with plans for further exploration and resource expansion [2]. Market Conditions - The global supply of copper is expected to face constraints due to various factors, while demand remains robust, indicating a potential upward trend in copper prices [2].