策略专题报告：4月决断的三大机会：顺周期、出海线和业绩线

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant calendar effect in the A-share market, particularly noting the seasonal trends of "spring rally" in January-February, "March fluctuations," and "April decisions" [43][22][34] - The "April decision" is characterized by a strong correlation with the overall market trend for the year, with a 70% probability of the same direction in price movements between April and the entire year [29][55][56] - The report identifies three main investment themes for the current market: cyclical stocks, overseas demand recovery, and performance-driven sectors [34][35][70] Group 2 - The "spring rally" typically lasts around 32 days, with an average gain of 9.16% and a 100% win rate over the past decade [22][20][45] - The "March fluctuations" are driven by increased market speculation and the release of economic data, leading to an average decline of 7.06% and a 0% win rate [48][25][26] - The "April decision" is influenced by clearer economic fundamentals and policy directions, with trading volumes typically decreasing as speculative trading diminishes [31][69][70] Group 3 - The report notes that the April market performance is often affected by external geopolitical situations, domestic policy changes, and economic conditions, with a focus on cyclical, overseas, and performance lines as key investment areas [34][60][70] - The report emphasizes that the April decision's market movements are often preceded by a rally in the first quarter, followed by a correction in the latter part of April due to policy tightening or economic slowdown [34][60][69] - The report also indicates that large-cap value indices, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, tend to outperform smaller growth indices during April, with average gains of 0.46% and 0.05% respectively [70]