Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) [5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio, with a proposed dividend of 4.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.2% in 2023, with a notable decline of 15.6% in Q4 [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 13.00, reflecting a PE ratio of 6 times for 2024 [3][5] Financial Summary - In 2023, the total revenue reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 26.1 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 10.40%, with a net profit margin of 2.29% [3] - The operating cash flow decreased significantly by 63.6%, totaling 20.4 billion yuan [3] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts EPS of 2.02 yuan for 2024, reflecting a 5% increase, and 2.12 yuan for 2025, also a 5% increase [3][4] - The projected net profit for 2024 is estimated at 27.45 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5% [4] Order Intake - New contracts signed in 2023 totaled 3.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% year-on-year [3] - The report notes a quarterly increase of 8% in new contracts for Q4 2023 [3][11] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.47, the lowest among state-owned construction enterprises [3] - The historical PE ratio is noted at 4.6 for 2023, with a forecasted PE of 4.3 for 2024 [3][10]