新能源产业趋势跟踪（24年3月下）：新能源车单月渗透率新高，小米首车上市破圈

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a new high in March, with Xiaomi's first car launch attracting attention [6][35] - The lithium market shows signs of recovery with production expected to improve, while cobalt prices are supported by strong holding sentiment [5][11] - The demand for new energy vehicles is anticipated to gradually recover in Q2 2024, driven by a new round of price competition [6][25] Summary by Sections 01 New Energy Industry Trend Commentary - The lithium supply is recovering as weather improves, while demand remains cautious due to high prices [5] - The new energy vehicle market saw significant growth in March, primarily due to a price war that boosted penetration rates [6] 02 Industry Dynamics & Data Tracking - Energy Metals: Lithium prices are supported by recent auction prices from Australian mines, while cobalt prices are stable due to strong holding sentiment [5][11] - Battery and Materials: The retail sales of new energy vehicles in March are expected to reach approximately 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.1% [5][25] - New Energy Vehicles: The market share of new energy vehicles reached 30.1% in February, with significant year-on-year declines in production and sales [25][30] - Photovoltaic/Wind Power: The domestic installation and export data for photovoltaic components showed positive trends, indicating a potential industry bottom [7] - Energy Storage/Grid: The domestic energy storage installation is expected to exceed expectations in 2024, with various technologies gaining traction [8] - Electric Power: The 2024 energy work guidance suggests a target of 250 GW of new power generation capacity, focusing on renewable energy integration [9] Appendix - Industry Index Performance: The performance of various industry indices shows fluctuations, with energy metals experiencing a decline [73][75] - Market Review: The energy metals and battery sectors have seen varied performance, with some segments under pressure while others show resilience [75][79]