Economic Overview - The macroeconomic indicators for January-February 2024 show a steady improvement, with industrial value-added growth at 7%, up 2.4 percentage points from December 2023[9] - Fixed asset investment growth has marginally improved but remains down 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, with real estate investment declining by 9%[9][24] - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024, aligning with market expectations[9][24] Production and Investment - Industrial production continues to show resilience, with 39 out of 41 industrial sectors reporting positive growth, particularly in high-tech and consumer goods manufacturing[16][19] - Manufacturing investment has accelerated due to equipment upgrades, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growth at 7.5%[16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 6.3% year-on-year, although it is still significantly lower than the previous year's figures[24] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales (retail sales) grew by 5.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from December 2023, indicating a weak recovery in consumer spending[28] - Service consumption remains strong, with a 12.3% increase in service retail sales, while goods retail sales grew by only 4.6%[28] - Despite a vibrant tourism sector during the Spring Festival, per capita spending remains weak, down 10% compared to 2019 levels[28] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 20.5% drop in new residential sales area and a 29.3% decrease in sales revenue year-on-year[24] - The decline in real estate investment has slowed marginally, but the overall trend remains negative, with significant uncertainty about a potential recovery[24][33] - The consumer confidence index in the real estate sector remains low, indicating ongoing pressure on housing sales[33]
宏观经济与大类资产配置月报（2024年1-2月）：生产好于需求静待稳增长政策效应释放，权益或仍有一定修复空间
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji·2024-04-07 16:00