大类资产每周观察

Debt Market Analysis - Last week, government bonds issued amounted to 240 billion, with maturities at 260.23 billion, resulting in a net monetary demand of 20.23 billion[1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 178.84 billion with no maturities, leading to a net monetary demand of 178.84 billion[1] - Other bonds issued reached 538.29 billion, with maturities at 715.2 billion, resulting in a net monetary demand of 176.91 billion[1] - Total bond market issuance was 957.14 billion, with maturities at 975.43 billion, leading to a net monetary demand of 18.29 billion[1] Monetary Supply and Demand - The central bank's reverse repos matured at 1,733 billion, with 1,316 billion injected, resulting in a net withdrawal of 417 billion, indicating seasonal tightening of monetary supply[25] - MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) saw a net injection of 216 billion in January, with total MLF issuance at 995 billion and maturities at 779 billion, reflecting a significant decrease in net injection[25] Economic Activity Insights - As of February 8, the weekly transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.495 million square meters, a significant drop of 59.4% compared to the previous week, indicating weak consumer confidence in real estate[8] - The manufacturing capacity utilization rate showed a seasonal decline, with specific sectors like asphalt and cement experiencing decreases of 3.7% and 2.3% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of reduced activity in the manufacturing sector[46] Inflation and Interest Rates - The U.S. January CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.9%, while core CPI rose to 3.9%, above the expected 3.7%[35] - Domestic interest rates showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield changing by 0.4 basis points, indicating a flattening yield curve[5] Market Trends - The overall performance of major asset classes last week showed A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading gains, while gold prices faced declines, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[16] - The risk premium for equities and bonds recorded a decrease, with the stock-bond risk premium at 4.13%, down 0.3% from the previous week, indicating a reduction in perceived risk[22]