宏观金融资讯周报

Macro Overview - Domestic manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.1% in February, indicating continued contraction since Q4 2023[14] - Service PMI increased to 51.4%, reflecting expansion in the service sector[14] - January PCE inflation data met expectations, with core PCE year-on-year down to 2.8% and overall PCE at 2.4%[24] Policy and Economic Outlook - The government work report is expected to provide direction for economic development, particularly regarding fiscal policy[5] - Continuous net investment through PSL and the acceleration of key projects are anticipated to boost demand in the upcoming "golden March and silver April" season[5] - The geopolitical situation, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to pose supply-side disruptions[5] Market Trends - Stock indices are expected to perform strongly due to robust policy expectations ahead of the "Two Sessions" meeting[17] - The bond market is likely to adjust based on the outcomes of the upcoming policy announcements, with potential for significant movement if policies exceed expectations[7] - Precious metals are projected to maintain upward momentum, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and heightened risk aversion[19] Inflation and Consumer Data - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with consumer spending contributing significantly to growth, despite a slight downward revision of Q4 GDP growth to 3.2%[41] - Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.4 in February, indicating a decline in economic confidence[34] - Japan's January CPI rose by 2.2%, exceeding expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[46]