4Q net loss markedly narrowed; VNB grew in low-teens despite revised EV assumptions

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for China Life, with a new target price set at HK$13.7, implying a potential upside of 47.2$9.31 [2][4][16]. Core Insights - China Life reported a full-year net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 46.2 billion, a decrease of 30.7% year-over-year, but the net loss in 4Q23 significantly narrowed to RMB 610 million from a loss of RMB 10.6 billion in 3Q23 [2][6]. - The company achieved a low-teen growth in Value of New Business (VNB), increasing by 11.9% year-over-year to RMB 36.9 billion, despite revised Economic Value (EV) assumptions [2][6]. - The insurer's insurance revenue saw a strong rebound, growing by 32.6% in the second half of 2023, supported by a release of RMB 44.1 billion in contractual service margin [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY23, China Life's net profit was RMB 46.2 billion, with a net profit of RMB 10.6 billion in 4Q23, reflecting a significant improvement from the previous quarter [2][6]. - The company reported a total investment yield of 2.43% and a net investment yield of 3.70% by the end of 2023, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [2][6]. VNB and EV Growth - The VNB for FY23 was RMB 36.9 billion, reflecting an 11.9% increase year-over-year, while the EV grew by 5.6% to RMB 1.26 trillion [2][6]. - The report indicates that the revisions in EV assumptions had a limited impact on VNB growth, with the long-term investment return revised down to 4.5% [2][6]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a positive turnaround in net investment results in 1H24, driven by improved index performances and a higher allocation to bonds [2][6]. - The target price adjustment reflects a new valuation approach based on P/EV and DDM, with the new target price of HK$13.7 implying a P/EV of 0.3x for FY24E [2][6].