Zhongyuan Securities·2024-04-08 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Guotai Junan Securities [2][5][33] Core Views - In 2023, Guotai Junan achieved operating revenue of 36.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.374 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.55% [5][7] - The company is experiencing a comprehensive growth in institutional clients, which has mitigated the decline in brokerage fee income compared to comparable securities firms [5][33] - The self-operated business is transitioning towards low-risk, non-directional strategies, with investment income showing significant recovery [5][33] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.98 yuan, down 21.60% year-on-year, and a return on equity (ROE) of 6.02%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points [5][7][36] - The proposed dividend for 2023 is 4.0 yuan per share (before tax), representing 38.0% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5][7] Business Segments - The asset management business saw a significant increase in net income, with a year-on-year growth of 148.60%, primarily due to the consolidation of Huashan Fund [5][22] - Brokerage business net income decreased by 11.16% year-on-year, while the investment income (including fair value changes) increased by 22.19% [5][26] - The investment banking segment experienced a decline in net income by 14.45%, with IPO underwriting amounts increasing by 7.4% year-on-year [5][17] Market Position - The company’s market share in stock trading increased to 4.63%, up 0.23 percentage points year-on-year, with a total trading volume of 19.64 trillion yuan [11][32] - The international business revenue grew by 54.96% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in overseas operations [5][32] Future Projections - The expected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 0.93 yuan and 1.02 yuan, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 17.16 yuan and 18.10 yuan [5][33] - The report anticipates a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.80 and 0.76 for 2024 and 2025, respectively, based on the closing price of 13.73 yuan on April 3, 2024 [5][33]