大类资产交易逻辑观察：逐渐拥挤的复苏共识

Group 1 - The recent surge in global market bullish sentiment is driven by concentrated pricing of the global manufacturing recovery, with the S&P 500 decoupling from concerns over monetary policy since February 2024 [2][5]. - Copper has broken out of its trading range since 2023, with a significant increase in non-commercial net long positions, marking the largest weekly increase since November 2016 [2][5]. - Oil prices have shown a steady increase, supported by low global crude oil inventories and OPEC's decision to extend production cuts into Q2 [2][5]. Group 2 - The global manufacturing PMI has shown strong momentum, with March 2024 data indicating a significant improvement, which is expected to further enhance global economic momentum [2][5]. - Despite the strong recovery signals, there is a growing consensus that the market may be entering a phase of bullish euphoria, with positioning in copper futures reaching a five-year high [2][5]. - The report highlights the need to be cautious as the global credit pulse is expected to peak and turn downward in Q2 2024, which may suppress economic activity [2][5]. Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on domestic black chain commodities, particularly iron ore, which has seen a significant pullback due to weak demand, suggesting a potential rebound in April [4][5]. - Indicators such as the 7-day moving average of real estate sales and cement mill operating rates have shown signs of improvement, signaling a possible recovery in black chain commodities [4][5]. - The report suggests that while there is optimism in the commodity market, there may be a "expectation gap" in fundamentals, indicating a potential correction in commodity prices in Q2 [5].