投研日报：宏观

Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery in early 2024 slightly better than expected, but uncertainty remains due to weak real estate sales and slow construction resumption[2] - Marginal improvements anticipated from fiscal tools like special bonds and PSL, despite ongoing pressures[2] Commodity Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with agricultural products fluctuating; palm oil up over 2%, while sugar down over 1%[11] - Stronger USD suppresses commodity rebounds, with basic metals mostly declining and energy products also falling[11] Financial Sector Overview - As of the end of 2023, total assets of China's financial institutions reached 461.09 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%[3] - Banking sector assets at 417.29 trillion CNY, up 10%; securities sector at 13.84 trillion CNY, up 5.6%; insurance sector at 29.96 trillion CNY, up 10.4%[3] Unemployment Rates - February unemployment rates for urban youth (16-24 years) at 15.3%, and for ages 25-29 at 6.4%[12] - Unemployment rate for ages 30-59 at 4.2%, indicating varying levels of job market challenges across age groups[12] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China maintained the 1-year LPR at 3.45% and the 5-year LPR at 3.95% as of March 20[12] - Anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with no commitments for further reductions post-June[16]