Changjiang Securities·2024-04-08 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a downward adjustment [4]. Core Views - In a turbulent environment, a relatively conservative operational approach is a rational choice. The company plans to strengthen bulk and equity trading in 2024, aiming for cash inflows exceeding 30 billion yuan, demonstrating a commitment to cash flow management and enhancing safety margins. The short-term focus is on deleveraging, with plans to reduce interest-bearing debt by 100 billion yuan over the next two years, actively utilizing financing tools such as operational property loans, and fully integrating into the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to promote a transformation in financing models. In the medium to long term, the company still possesses certain competitive advantages in brand and efficiency, maintaining a relatively stable position in the development business, with considerable value in its existing business. Amid overall industry pressure, the company's core task is to maintain a balanced cash flow, ensuring its survival value remains prominent after navigating liquidity pressures and successfully crossing the cycle [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 465.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.16 billion yuan, down 46.4%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 9.79 billion yuan, a decline of 50.6%. The comprehensive gross margin was 15.2%, down 4.3 percentage points [5][6]. Sales and Investment - The company recorded a sales volume of 376.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%, maintaining a leading position in the industry. The total land acquisition investment was approximately 82.8 billion yuan, down 6.5%, with a floor price of 13,899 yuan per square meter, an increase of 13.0%. The investment intensity in terms of amount and area was 22.0% and 24.2%, respectively. The company plans to start construction on 10.72 million square meters and complete 22.06 million square meters in 2024, representing declines of 35.9% and 31.7% year-on-year [6][7]. Operational Resilience - The company's operational service business showed strong resilience, with total revenue reaching 55.81 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. The property revenue was 33.42 billion yuan, up 10.2%, and the commercial rental income was 9.11 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6%. The long-term rental apartment business achieved overall profitability for the first time under the cost method, managing 230,000 units and generating rental income of 3.46 billion yuan, up 6.8% [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 10.9 billion, 10.3 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -10%, -5%, and -5%, respectively. The price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 9.8, 10.4, and 10.9 times [7][8].