CNOOC(600938) 东兴证券·2024-04-08 16:00Company Overview - The report focuses on China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) (600938 SH), a Hong Kong-based investment holding company established on August 20, 1999, primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and trade [5] - CNOOC operates in markets including China, Canada, the UK, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Brazil, with its business segments covering conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas activities [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, CNOOC achieved RMB 4160 09 billion in revenue, a 1 33% YoY decline, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1238 43 billion, down 12 60% YoY [5] - Despite a 19 29% YoY decline in Brent crude oil prices to USD 82 56 per barrel, CNOOC's cost control was strong, with its main oil cost per barrel decreasing by 5 13% to USD 28 83 [5] - The company's oil and gas production reached a 5-year high at 678 0 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), exceeding its initial target of 650-660 million BOE and marking an 8 65% YoY increase [5] Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to increase its oil and gas production to 700-720, 780-800, and 810-830 million BOE in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 4 72%, 11 27%, and 3 80%, respectively [5] - The company's capital expenditure in 2023 rose 27 46% YoY to RMB 1279 13 billion, with a projected range of RMB 1250-1350 billion for 2024 to support further production growth [5] - CNOOC expects to launch several new projects in 2024, including the Bozhong 19-2 oilfield development project, Deep Sea No 1 Phase II project, and Brazil's Mero3 project, enhancing its growth potential [5] Dividend Policy - In 2023, CNOOC distributed RMB 53 934 billion in cash dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of 44% [5] - The company's A-share dividend yield was 5 44%, while its H-share dividend yield reached 9 62% [5] - Since its listing in April 2022, CNOOC has paid cash dividends 3 times, totaling RMB 80 745 billion, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 32 78% and a total return ratio (including share repurchases) of 80 44% [5] Valuation and Investment Rating - The report forecasts CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 4349 88 billion, RMB 4612 20 billion, and RMB 4876 00 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 1312 10 billion, RMB 1478 85 billion, and RMB 1554 54 billion [12] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 2 76, RMB 3 11, and RMB 3 27, with corresponding PE ratios of 10 85x, 9 62x, and 9 16x [12] - The report upgrades CNOOC's rating to "Strongly Recommend" based on its strong cost control, stable earnings, and growth potential [20] Industry Context - The oil and gas industry is influenced by global economic trends, with Brent crude oil prices averaging USD 82 56 per barrel in 2023, down 19 29% YoY [5] - CNOOC's performance in 2023 was resilient, with its profit decline being less severe than the drop in oil prices, highlighting its operational efficiency and cost management [5]