硅料业务承压，输变电业务维持高景气

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.63 CNY, based on a 10x PE for 2024 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 98.12 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.79%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.75% to 10.70 billion CNY [2][5]. - The silicon material segment faced pressure due to a significant drop in prices, while the power transmission and transformation segment maintained high demand and growth [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 24.23 billion CNY, down 6.74% year-on-year but up 1.74% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.31 billion CNY, reflecting a 72.95% decline year-on-year [2]. - The silicon material sales volume increased by 90.16% to 202,900 tons, but prices fell sharply from 176,200 CNY/ton to 58,300 CNY/ton over the year [3]. - The coal segment's revenue grew by 4.47% to 18.23 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 46.41% [3]. Segment Performance - The power transmission and transformation segment saw revenues of 18.49 billion CNY, 13.55 billion CNY, and 4.92 billion CNY for transformers, cables, and complete engineering projects, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.39%, 32.56%, and 17.69% [4]. - The company secured domestic contracts worth 40.45 billion CNY and has approximately 5.3 billion USD in ongoing international contracts, indicating a robust order backlog [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 109.90 billion CNY, 124.51 billion CNY, and 135.46 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.01%, 13.29%, and 8.80% respectively [5]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 9.41 billion CNY, 11.00 billion CNY, and 12.59 billion CNY, with growth rates of -12.07%, 16.92%, and 14.37% respectively [5].