Huachuang Securities·2024-04-08 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Guotai Junan Securities (601211) with a target price of 19.1 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company's performance growth is driven by asset management and proprietary trading, despite a decline in net profit [1]. - The overall revenue for 2023 was 36.14 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.37 billion CNY, down 18.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was 5.8%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue reached 36.14 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 1.9% year-on-year. After deducting costs from other businesses, the adjusted revenue was 28.38 billion CNY, reflecting a 2.5% increase [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.37 billion CNY, showing a significant decline of 18.5% year-on-year [1][3]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue structure remained stable, with light asset business contributing 53.1% of total revenue, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. Asset management revenue contributed 14.4%, increasing by 8.5% year-on-year [1]. - Proprietary trading revenue saw a substantial increase of 29.9% year-on-year, reaching 9.13 billion CNY, while brokerage and investment banking revenues faced declines of 11.2% and 14.5%, respectively [2][3]. Asset Management and Fund Performance - The asset management business experienced significant growth, with total assets under management (AUM) reaching 543.09 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. The inclusion of Huazhang Fund in the consolidation for the full year contributed to a 148.5% increase in asset management revenue to 4.1 billion CNY [2][3]. - The non-money market fund management scale of Huazhang Fund was 336.92 billion CNY at the end of Q4, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year increase [2]. Future Earnings Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.30 CNY, 1.42 CNY, and 1.57 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.4, 9.5, and 8.6 [3][4]. - The projected book value per share (BPS) for the same years is 17.35 CNY, 18.09 CNY, and 18.82 CNY, with price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.78, 0.75, and 0.72 [3][4].