XfmGroup(SH:603225)2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2023, achieving operating revenue of 61.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.086 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [6][8] - The production and sales of polyester fibers have shown stable growth, with the production and sales of polyester filament yarn reaching 6.8 million tons and 6.82 million tons respectively, both up by approximately 18.6% year-on-year [6][11] - Improved downstream demand has led to an increase in gross profit margins, with the gross margin for chemical fiber products rising to 5.77%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [6][12] - The company is expanding its production capacity steadily, with plans to increase filament capacity by 400,000 tons and 650,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively [6][12] - A significant integrated refining and chemical project in Indonesia is set to be launched, with a total investment of 8.624 billion USD, expected to generate an average annual revenue of 10.438 billion USD and a net profit of 1.328 billion USD after tax [6][12] Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.23 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.71 yuan respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 14.76 to 17.22 yuan based on a PE ratio of 12-14 times for 2024 [7][14] - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 63.974 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.886 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73.7% [8][14] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 7.4% in 2024 and further to 8.0% in 2025 [14][12] Production and Capacity - The company has a current capacity of 7.4 million tons per year for civilian polyester filament, with plans to increase PTA capacity to 10 million tons by mid-2026 [6][12] - The company’s market share in the domestic market exceeds 12% [6][12] Market Performance - The company’s stock closed at 13.58 yuan on March 26, with a 52-week price range of 9.75 to 15.49 yuan [2] - The absolute and relative performance against the CSI 300 index shows fluctuations, with a 1.6% increase over one month and an 8.0% increase over two months [4]