养殖业月度简报：预期好转，猪价上行趋势确立

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is on an upward trend, with expectations for improvement in the market. As of March 29, 2024, the pig-to-grain price ratio is 6.32, with self-breeding pig profits at -61.69 CNY per head, a change of 170.1 CNY per head compared to the previous month. Professional fattening profits are at 112.58 CNY per head, a change of 129.1 CNY per head [2][7] - The supply-demand relationship for pigs is gradually improving, with a significant decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered in February, ending a four-month growth streak. The number of large pigs in scale pig farms has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, indicating a reduction in the number of pigs available for market in March and April [2][7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a plan to control pig production capacity, adjusting the target for the normal breeding sow population from 41 million to 39 million. As of February 2024, the breeding sow population is 40.42 million, down 0.6% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][7] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Pig Farming Industry - The pig farming industry is expected to improve, with a confirmed upward trend in pig prices. The profit margins for self-breeding and professional fattening models show significant changes compared to the previous month [2][7] 2. Production Situation - In February, 13 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 10.65622 million pigs, with an average selling price of approximately 13.85 CNY per kilogram, showing a month-on-month increase [12][13] 3. Feed Prices - As of March 29, 2024, the domestic corn spot price is 2327 CNY per ton, and the soybean meal spot price is 3486 CNY per ton. The market for corn is becoming more active, with stable prices and increased purchasing activity [17][18] 4. Investment Recommendations - The investment logic has shifted from "capacity reduction cycle" to "economic recovery and performance improvement," indicating potential for growth. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with high certainty in pig output and good cost control, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [20][21]