ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 17.01 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Zijin Mining's revenue for 2023 reached 293.403 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.119 billion CNY, up 5.38% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company's performance was driven by increased production and prices of its main products, although rising costs have pressured profitability [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing exploration and resource acquisition efforts, which are expected to support future growth [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In 2023, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 293.403 billion CNY, with a net profit of 21.119 billion CNY. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 68.395 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.41% [7][8]. - Production Volumes: The company produced 803,400 tons of copper (up 10.47% YoY), 648.4 tons of gold (up 15.97% YoY), and 411.4 tons of silver (up 3.91% YoY) in 2023 [8][9]. - Cost Analysis: The production costs for gold and copper increased due to various factors, including currency fluctuations and rising fuel prices. For instance, the cost of gold ingots was 286.09 CNY per gram (up 13.78% YoY) [8][9]. - Future Projections: The report projects that Zijin Mining will achieve a net profit of 26.018 billion CNY in 2024, with expected revenues of 356.417 billion CNY [13]. Growth Drivers - Project Development: Key projects in copper and gold are progressing, with significant production capacity expected to come online in the next few years. For example, the Kamoa Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to reach a capacity of over 600,000 tons per year by Q2 2024 [12]. - Resource Expansion: The company has been actively acquiring new resources, including a 48.59% stake in the Juno Copper Mine in Tibet, which adds significant copper resources [11][12]. - Market Trends: The report notes a bullish outlook for gold and copper prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [12][13].