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铜钴产能加速释放,跻身世界一流资源企业
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-04-09 16:00

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 8.48 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has established itself as a global leader in the mining industry, with a diversified portfolio that includes copper, cobalt, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate production. The management team has extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, having successfully integrated major projects like TFM and KFM [4][12]. - The company aims to achieve significant production targets over the next five years, including annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons [12][28]. - The copper market is expected to experience a supply bottleneck in the medium to long term, while demand is projected to rise, particularly due to the increasing importance of renewable energy applications [4][7]. - Cobalt prices have reached historical lows, but the company is well-positioned to benefit from a potential recovery in the market as supply dynamics stabilize [4][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive mining resource leader with a global footprint, having undergone significant expansion through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [4][12]. - It operates under a "mining + trading" model, making it a top producer of cobalt and a leading producer of copper, niobium, and tungsten [4][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 186,269 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8,250 million CNY, reflecting a 36% increase year-on-year [3][24]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, projected revenues are 195,293 million CNY, 196,843 million CNY, and 201,489 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10,561 million CNY, 11,463 million CNY, and 12,701 million CNY [3][8]. Production Capacity and Growth - The company has a copper resource of 34.64 million tons and a cobalt resource of 5.25 million tons, with production capacities expected to reach 520,000 to 570,000 tons of copper and 60,000 to 70,000 tons of cobalt in 2024 [4][28]. - The TFM and KFM projects are key contributors to the company's growth, with TFM expected to produce 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt annually once fully operational [29][34]. Market Dynamics - The copper market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with limited new supply expected in the coming years due to low capital expenditures in the industry [4][38]. - The cobalt market is currently facing oversupply pressures, but prices are stabilizing near production costs, limiting further downside [4][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and increasing demand from renewable energy sectors, making it a compelling investment opportunity [4][7][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 30.2, 22.2, and 17.3, respectively, indicating potential for growth [3][8].