Q1销量小幅下滑，新能源同环比高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.30 CNY, based on a current price of 15.30 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in sales in Q1, but there was a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales both year-on-year and month-on-month [2][3]. - The company is expanding its product lineup with the upcoming launch of the intelligent electric vehicle, the Zhiji L6, which is expected to further boost new energy vehicle sales [3]. - Export sales showed recovery in March, indicating a potential easing of previous logistical constraints [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 744.7 billion CNY, 778.4 billion CNY, and 822.8 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.55%, 4.52%, and 5.7% respectively [5]. - The expected net profit for the same period is 15.7 billion CNY, 17.2 billion CNY, and 18.5 billion CNY, with growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 8% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.35 CNY, 1.49 CNY, and 1.60 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. Sales Performance - In March, the company achieved wholesale vehicle sales of 381,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.41%, while the total sales for January to March were 834,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.4% [2]. - New energy vehicle sales reached 85,000 units in March, marking a 30% year-on-year increase and a 39% month-on-month increase, with total sales for the first quarter at 210,000 units, up 48% year-on-year [3]. Export and Logistics - The company’s export sales in March were 105,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, indicating a return to positive growth after previous declines [4]. - The expansion of the company's self-operated fleet, which will grow to 31 vessels, is expected to alleviate previous logistical constraints and support future export growth [4].