Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows resilience with a strong recovery trend, supported by a February Markit manufacturing PMI of 51.5 and a non-farm payroll increase of 275,000 jobs[57] - The Eurozone economy is experiencing marginal recovery, with a February manufacturing PMI of 46.5, indicating overall weakness compared to the U.S.[61] - China's economic recovery is slow, with a February official manufacturing PMI of 49.1, suggesting a need for stronger growth measures[65] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is generally declining, but core inflation in developed economies remains high, with the U.S. February CPI at 3.2%[70] - China's inflation is relatively low, with a February CPI of 0.7%, while India and Russia experience higher inflation rates of 5.2% and 7.7%, respectively[71] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates 2-3 times this year, with current rates held at 5.25%-5.50%[76] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to initiate rate cuts earlier than the Fed due to weaker economic growth[77] - Japan is entering a rate hike cycle, with expectations of at least two increases this year, reflecting a stronger economic recovery[77] Capital Attraction - The U.S. remains highly attractive for capital, with significant international capital inflows exceeding $1 trillion in 2022 and 2023[3] - The Eurozone's capital attractiveness has improved, but it still lags behind the U.S., particularly after the energy price surge due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict[10] - China's capital attractiveness is under pressure, with significant outflows observed in recent years, although there are signs of potential inflows[12]
宏观策略报告:美联储货币政策转向宽松下的全球汇率表现
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2024-04-09 16:00