中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：银行业月度跟踪：部分城农商行表现较好，业绩与分红率主导

Core Insights - The report highlights that some city and rural commercial banks performed well, with their performance and dividend rates being the main drivers [3]. - The A-share banking stocks mostly declined, with notable increases in certain city and rural commercial banks that showed strong performance or raised their dividend rates [3]. - Key policies from the recent Two Sessions include a fiscal deficit target of 3% and the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in special bonds to stimulate equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement [3]. Monthly Market Review - The stock market saw most sectors rise, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 0.6%, while the banking sector fell by 0.2%, resulting in an excess return of -0.8% compared to the CSI 300 [3]. - The latest price-to-book (PB) ratios for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks are 0.58, 0.52, 0.60, and 0.55 respectively, with slight changes from the previous month [3]. Key Announcements from Listed Banks - Personnel changes include the resignation of Mr. Tian Guoli as Chairman of China Construction Bank and the appointment of Mr. Zhang Jinliang as the new Chairman [3]. - In the annual reports released by 21 banks, total revenue decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.1% [3]. Financial Metrics Tracking - The one-year and ten-year government bond yields decreased to 1.72% and 2.29% respectively, with the yield spread increasing by 2 basis points [3]. - The interbank certificate of deposit rates saw a decline, with the overall cost dropping by 6 basis points to 2.42% [3]. Credit Risk Monitoring - There was an increase in the number and amount of defaults, with 19 credit bonds defaulting or being extended in March 2024, totaling 22.853 billion yuan [3]. - Key companies to watch for upcoming debt maturities include Evergrande, Country Garden, and Sunshine City, with an increase in their debt obligations compared to the previous month [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that economic conditions will dictate the selection logic for bank stocks, with different types of stocks corresponding to varying economic recovery scenarios [3].