宏观研究周报：PMI重回扩展区间，经济复苏稳中向好

Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicates that the Chinese economy is maintaining a recovery trend, with a target growth rate of around 5% for the year[33] - The National Bureau of Statistics reports that profits of industrial enterprises in January-February reached CNY 914.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%[6] - The official manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 50.8%, indicating a return to the expansion zone[34] Market Performance - Major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3041.17 points, down 0.23%[10] - Average daily trading volume decreased to CNY 940.86 billion, a 13.07% drop from the previous week[10] - Northbound capital recorded a net inflow of CNY 5.381 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of CNY 6.898 billion[10] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (up 4.08%) and Nonferrous Metals (up 3.72%), while the worst performers were Media (down 9.52%) and Computers (down 6.47%)[37] - Over 70% of industries reported profit growth, with significant recoveries in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors[6] International Context - The U.S. reported a 1.4% month-on-month increase in durable goods orders for February, exceeding expectations[9] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, aligning with market expectations[19]