业绩稳步增长，有望持续受益于铁路设备更替

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.18 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 412 million, up 19.0% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, revenue was 450 million, showing a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year but a significant increase of 118.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 167 million, up 10.1% year-on-year and 136.2% quarter-on-quarter. The dividend payout ratio has increased to 70% [1][21][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 64.6%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 36.3%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin improvement is attributed to a shift in product mix towards higher-margin products [21][22]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.57 per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a dividend yield of 3.9% based on the closing price on April 9 [21]. Business Segments - The LKJ control business generated revenue of 703 million in 2023, growing by 20.8% year-on-year. The high-speed rail operation monitoring business achieved revenue of 256 million, up 1.8% year-on-year, while the railway security business saw a revenue decline of 6.4% to 190 million [22][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from a new round of equipment replacement policies, with significant demand for system upgrades in the LKJ control and high-speed rail monitoring sectors [22][27]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 550 million, 658 million, and 759 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 23% over the next three years [3][23]. - Revenue growth rates for the LKJ control business are projected at 20% for 2024, 20% for 2025, and 20% for 2026, while the high-speed rail operation monitoring business is expected to grow at rates of 16%, 17%, and 16% over the same period [27][28].