美国3月通胀点评和中国3月通胀展望：通胀超预期，降息预期修正，商品调整风险

Inflation Insights - In March, the U.S. CPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.2%[6] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and matching the previous value[25] - Core service inflation remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 5% in March, while goods inflation continues to decline[10] Economic Trends - The combination of economic growth and rising inflation in the U.S. suggests a "prosperity combination," but this does not directly improve goods demand due to ongoing high interest rates[7] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, which may lead to increased rental costs and further inflationary pressures in the second quarter[26] - The divergence between goods and services inflation indicates that high rates are pressuring goods consumption while services remain elevated[10] Market Implications - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is being revised downward due to stronger-than-expected economic performance and inflation data[30] - The structural support from macro policies, including fiscal expansion and liquidity measures, is expected to maintain a high interest rate environment despite calls for rate cuts[19] - The potential for rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions could further complicate inflation dynamics and market stability[44]