LIVZON GROUP(000513) 国泰君安·2024-04-10 16:00Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 43.17, up from the previous target of CNY 41.04 [1] Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, and its innovative layout is entering a harvest period [1] - Chemical drugs face short-term pressure, while the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector is expected to grow steadily due to brand-building efforts [1] - Innovative drugs and high-end complex formulations are expected to drive long-term high-quality development [1] - Revenue for 2023 was CNY 12.43 billion (-1.6% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.954 billion (+2.3% YoY) [1] - Q4 2023 revenue was CNY 2.775 billion (-11.7% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 352 million (-12.6% YoY) [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2023 revenue: CNY 12.43 billion (-1.6% YoY) [1] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: CNY 1.954 billion (+2.3% YoY) [1] - 2023 adjusted net profit: CNY 1.881 billion (+0.1% YoY) [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts: CNY 2.40, CNY 2.70, and CNY 3.09 respectively [1] Segment Performance - Chemical drugs revenue: CNY 6.57 billion (-6.1% YoY), with gastrointestinal products revenue at CNY 2.903 billion (-15.5% YoY) [1] - TCM revenue: CNY 1.745 billion (+39.2% YoY), driven by online and retail sales [1] - API and intermediates revenue: CNY 3.553 billion (+3.7% YoY) [1] Innovation and R&D - Aprepitant's new indication (stress ulcer bleeding) was approved in 2023 [1] - Triptorelin microspheres for prostate cancer were approved, and endometrial cancer completed Phase III trials [1] - Aripiprazole microspheres are expected to submit NDA by mid-2024 [1] - Semaglutide for diabetes is expected to be approved, with weight loss indications pending clinical trials [1] - IL17A/F antibody is in Phase III trials, with data expected in H1 2025 [1] Valuation and Forecasts - 2024 PE ratio: 18X, with a target price of CNY 43.17 [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts: CNY 13.218 billion, CNY 14.204 billion, and CNY 15.455 billion respectively [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts: CNY 2.222 billion, CNY 2.498 billion, and CNY 2.859 billion respectively [1] Market Performance - Current stock price: CNY 37.30 [1] - 52-week price range: CNY 32.29-40.01 [1] - Market capitalization: CNY 34.557 billion [1] Industry and Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive pharmaceutical group engaged in R&D, production, and sales, with a strong market presence in China [2] - It has established a stable business relationship with thousands of hospitals and major commercial channels [2] - The company aims to become a leading modern pharmaceutical enterprise in China and globally [2]