大类资产跟踪周报：美国降息节奏延后，A股延续震荡

Core Insights - The report highlights a V-shaped rebound in the A-share market driven by strong consumption data during the Qingming holiday, with domestic tourist numbers recovering to 111.5% of 2019 levels and revenue reaching 112.7% [14][5] - The report indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded market expectations, leading to a delay in the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [14][5] Weekly Asset Tracking - The report notes that commodities performed well, particularly precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts [15][35] - The report suggests that the bond market remains stable with a slight downward trend in interest rates, influenced by the central bank's continued accommodative stance [15][30] Stock Market Analysis - A-shares showed slight gains across major indices, with small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices, and growth styles leading over value styles [21][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and telecommunications, which are expected to benefit from marginal improvements in fundamentals [14][7] Bond Market Overview - The report indicates that the central bank's liquidity management has resulted in a stable bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly declining to 2.28% [30][15] - The report also notes that the bond market is expected to maintain a strong trend, although there may be potential adjustment pressures on medium to long-term yields [15][30] Commodity Market Insights - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have shown strong performance, with gold prices remaining robust amid geopolitical uncertainties [35][15] - The report anticipates that oil prices will continue to operate at high levels due to tight supply and sustained demand [15][35] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report mentions a slight decline in the AH share premium, which stood at 11.23%, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [39][15] - The report also notes that the risk premium for the entire A-share market remains above its historical median, suggesting continued investor interest [39][15]