Dongxing Securities·2024-04-10 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua [2][9] Core Views - The company is expected to continue high cash dividends, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.26 CNY per share, totaling 44.903 billion CNY, which represents 75.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, a 2.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] - The coal and power joint operation model is deepening, with significant growth in coal production and sales, and an expected increase in capacity from new projects [9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 was 59.694 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year, while the average coal sales price fell by 9.3% to 584 CNY per ton [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 343.074 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59.694 billion CNY, down 14.3% [2][10] - The average net asset return rate was 14.6%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] Coal Division - The average coal sales price (excluding tax) was 584 CNY per ton, down 9.3% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons [3] - The coal division's revenue was 273.306 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling sales prices and rising production costs [3] Power Generation Division - Total power generation increased by 11.0% to 212.26 billion kWh, with sales volume rising by 11.1% to 199.75 billion kWh [3] - The revenue from the power generation division was 92.407 billion CNY, up 9.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points [3] Transportation and Coal Chemical Divisions - The transportation division saw a revenue increase of 1.8% to 42.961 billion CNY, while the coal chemical division's revenue decreased by 4.4% to 6.098 billion CNY [4] - The transportation division's operating costs rose by 9.5%, impacting the gross margin across all business segments [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 11 billion CNY in new coal mining projects, with an expected production capacity of 16 million tons per year [9] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to reach 60.316 billion CNY, 60.659 billion CNY, and 64.075 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.04 CNY, 3.05 CNY, and 3.22 CNY [9][10]