一体化运营彰显盈利稳定性，煤价波动中的定海神针

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 37.49, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current price of HKD 31.85 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's integrated operations demonstrate stable profitability, acting as a stabilizing force amid coal price fluctuations. The high proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales helps smooth out price volatility, contributing to stable profit levels [1][2]. - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 69.5% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenues of CNY 343.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 64.6 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend is CNY 2.26 per share, totaling CNY 44.9 billion [1][5]. - The coal production reached 321 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons. The revenue from coal business was CNY 273.3 billion, a decline of 1.5% [1][5]. Operational Insights - The company’s coal production cost per ton decreased by 2.3% to CNY 162 due to significant reductions in labor costs in the fourth quarter [1]. - The proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales increased by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, with the average price of long-term contracts only declining by 2.9%, which is less volatile compared to spot market prices [1][2]. Power Generation - The company’s total installed power generation capacity reached 45 GW, with 43 GW from coal-fired power. The power generation volume increased by 11% year-on-year, benefiting from new installations and a 5% reduction in unit electricity costs due to falling coal prices [1]. - The integrated coal and power operations significantly alleviate profitability pressures during periods of coal price volatility, with approximately 7 GW of coal power capacity still under construction [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to CNY 63.3 billion, CNY 63.5 billion, and CNY 63.7 billion respectively, reflecting stable growth expectations [2][5].