减值拖累渐轻，内生性成长持续推进，维持“买入”评级

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 15% within the next 6 to 12 months [4][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 225.07 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 22.65% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 60.23% to 6.717 billion yuan [2]. - The production of alumina was 16.67 million tons in 2023, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, while the sales of alumina increased by 24.67% [2]. - The report highlights the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses, improving asset quality [2]. - Key projects are progressing as planned, with new production capacities expected to enhance the company's output in both electrolytic aluminum and alumina [2]. - The company has strengthened its resource security, adding 21 million tons of bauxite resources in 2023, leading to a self-sufficiency rate of 64.7% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from 225.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 354.604 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58% [1]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 6.717 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.824 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 61% [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.39 yuan in 2023 to 0.63 yuan in 2024 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.5 in 2023 to 11.5 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1]. Industry Insights - The report suggests that 2024 will be a transformative year for the electrolytic aluminum industry, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics [3]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to recover due to the growth in new energy sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics [3]. - The report anticipates that the price of electrolytic aluminum will stabilize around 25,000 yuan per ton, influenced by increased capital expenditure and resource competition [5].