配置专题系列一：全球定价大宗商品有望成为全年主线（铜）

Group 1: Supply - Capital expenditure for copper companies has been declining since 2016, leading to a slowdown in copper supply growth, with expectations of tight supply in the coming years [9][15][17] - The average grade of existing copper mines is decreasing, which further suppresses production. For instance, the average grade of Chilean copper mines fell from 0.78 in 2014 to 0.66 in 2022, a decline of 15.4% [10][15][17] - Political disturbances and changing mining policies in major copper-producing countries like Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are impacting production and export [17] Group 2: Demand - In 2022, China accounted for 57.42% of global copper consumption, with the U.S. contributing 6.64%. China alone contributed more than half of global copper demand [22][25] - The demand composition in China shows that electricity accounts for 44.8%, home appliances for 15.2%, and machinery and electronics for 11.1% [13][25] - The demand for copper in the renewable energy sector, particularly from solar and wind power, is expected to grow significantly, with solar and wind installations projected to increase in 2024 [25][39][42] Group 3: Prices and Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that copper prices closely follow the PMI data from China and the U.S., suggesting that copper prices have room for upward movement due to supply-demand balance and a weakening dollar [43][59] - The valuation of the copper sector is currently low, which is expected to rise alongside copper prices, as historical trends show a clear upward trajectory during periods of supply-demand tightness [61]