中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：2023年各省市经济财政债务“成绩单”

Economic Overview - The overall economic situation is improving, but there is regional differentiation. 17 provinces have GDP growth rates exceeding the national average, including Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang. The national GDP growth for 2023 is 5.2% [11] - Provinces such as Gansu, Tibet, Chongqing, and Jilin also show growth rates above the national level, while 13 provinces, including Heilongjiang and Guangxi, have growth rates below the national average, with Heilongjiang at 2.6% [11] - The secondary industry is declining while the tertiary industry is increasing across most provinces, with Jiangsu and Guangdong's secondary industry value exceeding 4 trillion [11] Fiscal Performance - The local general public budget revenue reached 11,721.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while the local government fund budget revenue was 6,628.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.1% [11] - Provinces like Tibet and Chongqing saw significant growth in public budget revenue, exceeding 15%, with Tibet achieving a remarkable 31.7% growth [11] - The government fund revenue in provinces like Guangdong and Jiangxi did not reach 5% growth, with Jiangxi's non-tax revenue declining by 10.5% [11] Debt Situation - Most provinces are experiencing an upward trend in local government debt, with the exception of Xinjiang, which saw a slight decrease in 2023 [11] - The trend of interest-bearing debt from urban investment companies varies across provinces, with some like Guangdong and Zhejiang showing growth, while others like Inner Mongolia and Tianjin are seeing declines [11] - By the end of September 2023, 14 provinces had a broad debt ratio lower than at the end of 2022, indicating some success in debt reduction efforts [11] Key Provinces Analysis - In Tianjin, the debt structure is primarily composed of interest-bearing debt from urban investment companies, with a slower growth rate since 2019. The city has proposed a comprehensive debt resolution plan for 2023 [12] - Gansu has implemented a plan to mitigate local debt risks, successfully reducing financing platform debt by 104.84 billion yuan [12]