GANFENG LITHIUM(002460) 国泰君安·2024-04-11 16:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [2] Core Views - Lithium prices have declined, lagging behind lithium salt prices, leading to higher costs for externally sourced lithium ore and lower lithium salt product prices, which have dragged down performance [2] - The company is continuously improving the self-sufficiency rate of upstream raw materials and advancing the construction of a fully integrated industrial chain [2] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 32.972 billion CNY (down 21.16% YoY) [2] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: 4.947 billion CNY (down 75.87% YoY) [2] - 2024-2025 EPS forecast adjusted to 1.61/2.14 CNY (previously 3.61/4.13 CNY) [2] - 2026 EPS forecast: 3.21 CNY [2] - 2024 PE valuation: 29x, target price maintained at 46.80 CNY [2] Operational Highlights - Lithium salt product production/sales/inventory: 104,300/101,800/7,200 tons LCE, up 7.25%/4.57%/50.76% YoY [2] - Power and energy storage battery production/sales/inventory: 10.62/8.20/3.29 MWh, up 56.46%/20.38%/278.08% YoY [2] - Lithium salt product gross margin: 12.53% (down 43.58 pct YoY) [2] - Lithium battery product gross margin: 17.96% (up 0.11 pct YoY) [2] Strategic Developments - Subscribed to at least 14.8% of the shares of Argentina's salt lake lithium mining company PGCO [2] - Increased lithium spodumene supply from Australian miner Pilbara from 160,000 tons to 260,000-310,000 tons annually for the next 3 years [2] - Increased equity stake in Mali Lithium's Goulamina project to 55% through subsidiary Ganfeng International [2] - Signed a long-term supply agreement with Hyundai Motor [2] - Invested in the construction of a 5GWh lithium battery production project in Nanchang [2] - Partnered with Hohhot government to build a 20GWh lithium battery project [2] - Established Jiangxi Ganfeng Environmental Protection Company to promote the recycling of lithium smelting slag [2] Related Reports - Lithium prices continue to decline, putting pressure on performance (2024.01.31) [3] - Increased investment in Mali lithium mine to strengthen upstream layout (2024.01.19) [3] - Correction in mining price model, profit improvement imminent (2023.11.01) [3] - Expanding upstream and downstream, further integration efforts (2023.08.31) [3] - Steady progress in resource layout, long-term growth potential (2023.01.30) [3]