宏观经济评论：美股宏观策略周报

Geopolitical Events - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian embassy in Syria, causing market concerns and a subsequent drop in U.S. stocks, while Brent crude oil prices rose above $90 for the first time in five months[1] - U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5%, as economic data prompted hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, indicating that rate cuts may not occur this year[1] Economic Data - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with ADP reporting an increase of 184,000 jobs in March, exceeding expectations, and non-farm payrolls showing a significant gain of 303,000 jobs, the largest increase in nearly a year[1] - Average hourly earnings growth year-on-year declined to 4.1%, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures despite strong employment figures[1] Market Strategy - Hedge funds net sold global equities for the second consecutive week, marking the largest sell-off since mid-January, particularly in the non-essential consumer goods sector[1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has diminished, leading to a stagnation in U.S. stock prices, with major indices experiencing declines last week[1] Sector Insights - The automotive sector shows optimism from executives at General Motors and Ford regarding consumer demand, although electric vehicle sales are struggling, prompting production cuts[3] - TSMC quickly restored production capacity after a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan, alleviating concerns over the global semiconductor supply chain[1]