新湖期货棉花日报

Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decrease in the intended cotton planting area in Xinjiang for 2024, down by 1.5% year-on-year to 3,667,700 acres, with a minor increase of 42,000 acres compared to the December survey [7]. - The report highlights that downstream demand is showing signs of recovery as temperatures rise, although there are significant regional differences in demand [7]. - The overall inventory levels for cotton in spinning mills are stable, while cotton yarn inventories are decreasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. Price Trends - The closing price for cotton futures CF405 is reported at 16,210 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.43% [7]. - The Chinese cotton price index (CCIndex: 3128B) is noted at 17,212 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 15 yuan from the previous period [7]. - The cotton yarn price index (C32S) remains stable at 23,175 yuan per ton, showing no change [7]. Inventory and Production - The commercial cotton inventory is reported at 4,125,700 tons, a decrease of 11,240 tons from the previous period [7]. - The spinning mills' cotton inventory is at 30.4 days, slightly down from 30.6 days, while cotton yarn inventory is at 25.5 days, up from 24.7 days [7]. - The operating rate for spinning mills is reported at 82.1%, down from 82.7%, while weaving mills' operating rate is at 62.5%, up from 61.8% [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the USDA's April supply and demand report has adjusted global beginning stocks, production, and consumption for the 2023/24 season, leading to a reduction in global ending stocks [7]. - The report suggests that the cotton market may experience a strong upward trend, but there are pressures from large ginning factories releasing limited resources, which may create strong hedging pressures at cost levels [7].