SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-04-13 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China CNR Corporation Limited (601766.SH) [1][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 923 million to 1.046 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% [1] - The demand for rail transit equipment is recovering, driven by increased railway investment and passenger volume [1] - The maintenance business for high-speed trains is anticipated to see significant growth due to the upcoming surge in major repairs [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, the company expects a net profit of 9.23 billion to 10.46 billion RMB, an increase of 3.08 billion to 4.31 billion RMB compared to the same period last year [1] - The expected growth rate is between 50% and 70% [1] Operational Analysis - The product delivery structure has improved, contributing to the high growth in performance [1] - Railway fixed asset investment in 2023 was 764.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Passenger volume in 2023 reached 3.86 billion, a 130% increase year-on-year [1] - The demand for new high-speed trains is expected to rise, with a significant increase in tenders for new train sets [1] Maintenance Business Outlook - The fifth-level maintenance for high-speed trains is entering a peak period, with 361 high-level maintenance tenders in 2024, including 207 for fifth-level maintenance [1] - The company signed maintenance orders worth 14.78 billion RMB from December 2023 to March 2024, which is substantial compared to its 2022 revenue [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 258.83 billion, 285.18 billion, and 313.45 billion RMB, respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.72 billion, 15.38 billion, and 16.74 billion RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 13X, and 12X [1][4]