金融数据速评（2024.3）：“灰犀牛”近身，企业借贷意愿亦开始降温

Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In March, new credit increased by 3.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 800 billion yuan, with a larger decline compared to February[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans sharply cooled, with a monthly increase of 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 470 billion yuan, indicating a decline in corporate investment willingness amid real estate and local debt risks[3] - Resident loans also continued to decrease year-on-year, with short-term and medium-long loans adding 490.8 billion yuan and 451.6 billion yuan respectively, totaling a decrease of about 300 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious home-buying sentiment[3] Group 2: Social Financing and M2 Growth - New social financing in March was 4.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 500 billion yuan, with a smaller decline compared to February[4] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock fell by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%, indicating a continued slowdown in broad credit expansion[4] - M2 growth rate declined by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, the lowest level in nearly 30 months, primarily due to reduced deposits from both enterprises and residents[12] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The acceleration of local debt risk resolution has slowed the issuance of special bonds, but central government debt financing is expected to accelerate from April, potentially supporting social financing in the coming months[4] - The end of the fiscal overdraft phase has led to a noticeable effect on deposit growth, with corporate and resident deposits decreasing by over 500 billion yuan and nearly 800 million yuan respectively[12] - The central government plans to initiate a new round of fiscal expansion to replace suppressed local leverage financing needs, which is crucial for sustaining domestic demand growth[14]