COMEC(SH:600685) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-04-13 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [20][21]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its shipbuilding business, with a revenue increase of 67.95% in 2023, contributing to a total revenue of 16.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.19% [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a performance recovery phase, benefiting from the ongoing recovery in the shipbuilding industry, with substantial growth in new orders and delivery volumes anticipated in 2024 [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 16.146 billion yuan, with a net profit of 48.07 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 93.02% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's gross margin was reported at 6.63%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous year, while the net margin was 0.45%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][4]. Business Segments - The shipbuilding segment generated revenue of 13.234 billion yuan, accounting for 81.97% of total revenue, with container ships and special ships showing notable growth [2][3]. - The company secured new orders worth 183 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 27.5% increase year-on-year, with a total backlog of contracts valued at approximately 557.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Market Outlook - The global shipbuilding market is stabilizing, with new ship prices reaching record highs, driven by factors such as rising labor costs and a shift towards green shipbuilding [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the industry's cyclical recovery, with expectations of increased profitability as new ship prices continue to rise [6][5]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set at 18.975 billion yuan, 21.991 billion yuan, and 24.512 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 1.313 billion yuan, 1.732 billion yuan, and 2.188 billion yuan [6][7].