2023年年报业绩点评：业绩追随行业有所下滑，期间费用率下降显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in 2023, with a revenue of 43.253 billion yuan, down 9.44% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.351 billion yuan, down 19.40% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company aims for a metal product output target of 9.47 million tons in 2024, slightly down from the 2023 target of 9.66 million tons [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio to 3.87%, the lowest in nearly 11 years, through cost control measures [2]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 17.71%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 1.56% [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downwards due to the steel industry's declining profitability, with net profit estimates reduced by 38.78% and 33.62% respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 43.253 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.44% from 2022, and a net profit of 1.351 billion yuan, down 19.40% year-on-year [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 6.932 billion yuan, down 25.33% year-on-year and 41.26% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s cash dividend for 2023 totaled 239 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 17.71% [1][3]. Production and Cost Management - The company produced 2.828 million tons of cast pipes and other casting products in 2023, a decrease of 5.29% year-on-year, while the production of ordinary steel products increased by 11.27% to 3.632 million tons [2]. - The expense ratio was reduced to 3.87%, reflecting effective cost control measures implemented across the value chain [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a net profit of 1.404 billion yuan for 2024, with a slight increase to 1.689 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.887 billion yuan in 2026 [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.34 yuan, with a projected EPS of 0.35 yuan for 2024 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to remain at 11 for 2024 and 2025, with a decrease to 9 in 2026 [4].