业绩符合预期，毛利率同比修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 23.8 CNY [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 13.857 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 12.77%, and a net profit of 1.459 billion CNY, down 7.18% year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [5]. - The relaxation of export regulations for urea is expected to boost urea prices, enhancing the company's profitability in the fertilizer segment [6]. - The company is a leading player in the phosphate chemical industry, leveraging its integrated advantages from phosphate and coal resources, as well as large-scale ammonia production facilities [5]. Summary by Sections Company Information - Industry: Chemical [5] - A-share price as of April 12, 2024: 19.35 CNY [5] - Market capitalization: 35.494 billion CNY [5] - Major shareholder: Yuntianhua Group Co., Ltd. (38.12%) [5] Product Portfolio - Trade industry: 51.2% - Fertilizers: 40.6% - Phosphate chemicals: 3.9% - Other industries: 2.2% [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 average selling prices for key products: - Phosphate ammonium: 3,353 CNY/ton, down 5.3% YoY - Compound fertilizer: 3,073 CNY/ton, down 15% YoY - Urea: 2,184 CNY/ton, down 16% YoY - Polyoxymethylene: 11,832 CNY/ton, down 3% YoY - Yellow phosphorus: 20,382 CNY/ton, down 23% YoY - Feed-grade phosphate: 3,227 CNY/ton, down 7% YoY [5]. Profitability and Forecast - The company expects net profits of 4.674 billion CNY, 4.962 billion CNY, and 5.295 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth of 3%, 6%, and 7% [7]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 2.55 CNY, 2.70 CNY, and 2.89 CNY [7]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend per share of 1 CNY and a yield of 5.17% [6][7].