有色金属2024年二季度策略：降息预期下，继续关注“黄金+铝”

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on "gold + aluminum" sectors under the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong rebound since early 2024, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries with an 8.5% increase in the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index as of March 31, 2024 [2][7] - The gold sector is expected to continue its upward trend in Q2 2024, driven by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing central bank demand for gold [2][15] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in Q2 2024, with high profitability per ton of aluminum due to stable costs and recovering demand from the real estate and automotive sectors [2][43] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Review - The Shenwan non-ferrous metals index increased by 8.5% year-to-date as of March 31, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 3.1% [2][7] - The top three gainers in the sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Copper, and Zhuhai Group, while the biggest losers are Shenzhen New Star, Rongjie Shares, and Jiangte Electric [2][8] 2. Gold Sector Outlook for Q2 2024 - Gold prices are expected to rise following a period of volatility, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][15] - Historical trends suggest that gold performs well during the transition from interest rate hikes to cuts, with central bank demand further supporting prices [2][37] 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Outlook for Q2 2024 - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is projected to remain tight, with production capacity capped at approximately 45 million tons [2][43] - Demand recovery is anticipated from the real estate sector, with a notable increase in automotive aluminum usage [2][57] - The report highlights that the profitability per ton of aluminum is expected to remain high due to stable costs and recovering demand [2][66] 4. Investment Recommendations - For the gold sector, it is recommended to consider companies such as Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, and Zijin Mining during price dips [2][70] - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, companies like Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co. are suggested for investment [2][70]