大类资产每周观察

Economic Overview - The U.S. March CPI year-on-year growth recorded at 3.5%, with core CPI at 3.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[46] - U.S. Treasury yields increased significantly, with the 2-year yield rising from 4.8% to 5.1% and the 10-year yield from 4.36% to 4.49%, reflecting reduced recession fears[50] - China's economic data for March showed weakness, attributed to high base effects from last year and ongoing risks in the real estate sector, impacting consumer and business confidence[5] Market Performance - Major asset performance last week: Gold led gains, while A-shares experienced the largest decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.62%[9] - The stock market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with cyclical stocks likely outperforming growth stocks in the near term[55] Investment Strategy - Suggested strategy includes buying risk assets (stocks) during sharp declines and shorting safe-haven assets (government bonds) during rebounds[6] - For commodities, a narrow range of fluctuations is anticipated, with recommendations to buy agricultural products and non-ferrous metals on dips, while shorting related industrial products during rebounds[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include U.S. inflation and employment disturbances, slower-than-expected recovery of the domestic economy, and geopolitical military conflict risks[7] Monetary Supply and Demand - Last week, the central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 40 billion yuan, indicating a neutral monetary supply[19] - Total bond issuance reached 20,124.4 billion yuan, with a net demand of 3,568.3 billion yuan, reflecting sustained high demand for financing[22] Real Estate Market - As of April 11, the weekly transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 161.6 million square meters, a seasonal decline from 261.3 million square meters, remaining at a near seven-year low[31]