4Q23受一次性费用影响，2024年毛利率有望加速提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of HK$101.00, slightly down from the previous HK$101.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that despite a significant increase in sales and distribution expenses in Q4 2023, the profit margin expansion trend is expected to continue into 2024, driven by product upgrades and a decrease in the sales and distribution expense ratio [1][2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 40.87 billion, which is 7.7% lower than previous forecasts due to increased brand investment following negative news in November 2023 [1][3]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of beer increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2023, while sales volume decreased by 0.8%, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 31.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 33.40 billion, maintaining the same growth rate [2][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 34.0%, expected to rise to 36.1% in 2024, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix and cost management [2][10]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 3.64, down from RMB 3.82 previously forecasted, indicating a 5% decrease [1][3]. Valuation - The report uses a 15x adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple for valuation, which is higher than the current multiples of 9.0x for Chinese beer companies and 12.8x for liquor companies, reflecting the company's positive revenue structure changes and profit margin improvements [4][5]. - The target price of HK$101.00 is based on updated earnings forecasts and a revised exchange rate assumption of 1.10 for RMB/HKD [4][5]. Market Comparison - Qingdao Beer is compared with peers such as China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC, showing a competitive position in terms of valuation metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA [5]. - The report notes that Qingdao Beer trades at a P/E of 12.6x for 2024E, which is attractive given the expected growth in profit margins and revenue [5][10].