Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.7, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current stock price of HKD 2.67 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.16 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, and a net profit of RMB 11.2 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 475 million in the previous year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its expansion through a franchise model, with 81 franchise stores opened by the end of 2023 and an expectation to significantly increase this number in 2024 [1][2]. - The average order value decreased to RMB 29.6 in 2023, reflecting the company's strategy to lower prices to adapt to changing consumer behavior and increase sales volume [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 67.09% in 2023, with a slight decrease from previous years, while the operating profit margin improved from 11.9% in 2022 to 17.7% in 2023 due to cost control measures [2][19]. - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) business segment saw a revenue increase of 70% in 2023, although it is still in the investment phase with a current operating loss of RMB 10 million [2][19]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 130 million, RMB 220 million, and RMB 270 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.09, HKD 0.14, and HKD 0.18 [1][2][19]. Store Expansion and Strategy - By the end of 2023, the company had 1,574 direct-operated stores, with a net addition of 506 stores compared to the previous year, focusing on high-tier cities [1][2]. - The company plans to continue its expansion into lower-tier cities and overseas markets, having already opened a store in Thailand with strong customer traffic [1][2]. - The shift from a direct-operated model to a franchise model is expected to enhance the speed of store openings and market penetration [1][2]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both comparable company analysis and DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 3.7 based on a 35x PE ratio for 2024 earnings [12][15]. - The DCF analysis estimates a reasonable market value of HKD 4.4, considering a WACC of 13% and growth rates of 5% in the short term and 2% in the long term [12][15].
开放加盟，门店加速扩张