Tianfeng Securities·2024-04-14 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" with a target price of 102.1 HKD, maintaining the rating as of April 13, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q4 2023 earnings exceeded market expectations, with revenue of 73.7 billion CNY, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 1%. Adjusted net profit was approximately 4.37 billion CNY, exceeding expectations by 51% [1]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue for Q4 2023 was 55.13 billion CNY, meeting expectations, while new business revenue reached 18.57 billion CNY, also exceeding expectations by 1% [1]. - The report highlights continuous growth in the food delivery segment, with a projected 20% year-on-year revenue increase for Q4 2023, driven by an increase in transaction users and purchase frequency [1]. - The flash purchase business is expected to see a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2023, with overall order volume for the year expected to grow over 40% [1]. - The in-store travel segment is projected to grow over 100% year-on-year in GTV for the full year 2023, with Q4 revenue expected to increase by 63% [1]. - New business losses narrowed to 4.83 billion CNY in Q4 2023, slightly above Bloomberg's expectations, with a loss rate improving to 26% [1]. - The report emphasizes Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews as key competitive advantages, predicting continued strengthening of profitability in the core local commerce segment [1]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q4 2023 revenue was 73.7 billion CNY, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1%. EBIT was 1.76 billion CNY, also surpassing expectations by 32%. Adjusted net profit was approximately 4.37 billion CNY, exceeding expectations by 51% [1]. Core Local Commerce - Q4 2023 revenue was 55.13 billion CNY, with delivery service revenue at 21.93 billion CNY, slightly below expectations by 1%. Commission revenue was 19.43 billion CNY, exceeding expectations by 4.4% [1]. New Business - Q4 2023 new business revenue was 18.57 billion CNY, with operating losses narrowing to 4.83 billion CNY, slightly above expectations by 4% [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Meituan's core competitive advantage lies in its strong merchant base and accumulated user reviews, with a forecast for revenue growth of 316.7 billion CNY, 377.3 billion CNY, and 427.7 billion CNY for 2024-2026 [1].