2024年一季度经济数据点评：GDP增速预期差和库存周期

Economic Growth and Inventory Cycle - In Q1 2024, GDP growth was 5.3%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[8] - The primary driver for the higher-than-expected GDP growth was corporate inventory replenishment, particularly in the secondary industry, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6.0%[2] - The inventory cycle can lead to underestimations of GDP growth, as seen in Q3 2023 when actual GDP growth was 4.9% against a market expectation of 4.5%[9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment year-on-year increased from 4.2% to 4.7%, with manufacturing investment rising from 9.4% to 10.3%[5] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included transportation equipment (24.6%), metal products (21.8%), and agricultural processing (20.2%)[5] - Infrastructure investment decreased from 9.0% to 8.6%, primarily affected by transportation sector performance[18] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth declined from 5.5% to 3.1%, with automotive sales significantly dragging down the overall figure, dropping from 8.7% to -3.7%[29] - Per capita disposable income reached 11,539 yuan, with a marginal propensity to consume at 63.3%, the highest since 2020 but still below pre-pandemic levels[21] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the current economic recovery may not be as robust as GDP figures indicate, with potential inventory destocking in Q2 possibly dragging down GDP growth[4][15] - The service sector's production index fell from 5.8% to 5.0%, indicating challenges in maintaining growth levels seen in 2023[27] - The real estate sector continues to face difficulties, with the National Housing Prosperity Index declining from 92.12 to 92.07, indicating ongoing struggles in the market[28]