中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观张德礼：GDP增速预期差和库存周期-2024年一季度经济数据点评

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%, primarily driven by inventory replenishment by enterprises [2][5] - The secondary industry recorded the highest GDP growth at 6.0%, significantly outpacing the growth of terminal demand, indicating a likely inventory replenishment phase [2][5] - The relationship between inventory cycles and GDP growth suggests that the actual recovery in terminal demand may not be as positive as indicated by GDP growth figures [2][5] Group 2: Industrial and Investment Insights - Industrial added value growth slowed to 4.5% in March 2024, down from 7.0% in the previous months, with mining, manufacturing, and utilities all experiencing declines [2][9] - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising from 9.4% to 10.3%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [2][9] - Infrastructure investment growth was 8.6%, but real estate investment saw a significant decline of 16.8%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][9] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Social retail sales growth fell to 3.1% in March, significantly lower than the previous months, with automotive sales being a major drag [2][9] - The marginal propensity to consume reached 63.3%, the highest since 2020, indicating potential for consumer spending recovery, albeit at a slow pace [2][9] - Service retail sales growth is expected to continue declining due to base effects and the gradual release of pent-up demand [2][9] Group 4: Employment and Economic Stability - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% in the first quarter, aligning with seasonal patterns and lower than the previous year [2][9] - The overall economic situation appears stable, with expectations for continued policy support to stimulate growth in the coming quarters [2][9]