Semir(002563) 太平洋·2024-04-18 01:01Investment Rating - Buy rating is given to the company with a target price of 5 99 yuan [7][9] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual report shows a revenue of 13 66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2 5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1 12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76 1% [10] - The company's dividend payout ratio for 2023 is 72%, with a dividend per share of 0 3 yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5 2% [10] - The children's wear business has shown steady growth, with revenue increasing by 4 9% year-on-year to 9 37 billion yuan, accounting for 69% of total revenue [10] - The company's gross profit margin increased by 2 7 percentage points to 44% in 2023, driven by improved discount rates and an increase in the proportion of high-margin direct sales [10] - The company's inventory turnover days decreased by 25 8 days to 155 days, and inventory net value decreased by 28 6% to 2 75 billion yuan, indicating improved operational efficiency [10] - The company's operating cash flow increased by 65 1% to 1 941 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a healthy cash flow position [10] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 11 4% in 2024, 9 2% in 2025, and 8 5% in 2026 [11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1 272 billion yuan in 2024, 1 489 billion yuan in 2025, and 1 747 billion yuan in 2026 [11] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 13x in 2024, 11x in 2025, and 9x in 2026 [11] Business Performance - The company's offline channel recovery is evident, with direct sales revenue increasing by 19 2% year-on-year to 1 37 billion yuan [10] - The number of offline stores decreased by 213 in 2023, but the company expects to resume net store openings in 2024 [10] - The company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreased by 0 4, 0 2, 0 2, and 0 8 percentage points respectively in 2023, indicating effective cost control [10]