万联证券万联晨会

Core Insights - The banking industry continues to face operational pressure, with a projected revenue growth rate of -0.89% for 2024, a decline of 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. Net profit growth is expected to be 1.6%, down 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. The positive contribution to revenue in 2023 was primarily due to high scale expansion and low base investment income growth, while net interest margins and non-interest income are weakening [10][17] - The overall interest rates are expected to remain on a downward trend, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate target range currently at 5.25%-5.5%. The long-term interest rates may have limited room for further decline unless there is a significant economic downturn in the U.S. [10][17] Market Review - On a recent trading day, all three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.14% to 3,071.38 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.48%. The total trading volume in A-shares reached 918.2 billion RMB, with over 4,800 stocks rising. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.02% [7][25] Diamond Industry Insights - In March, India's rough diamond imports decreased by 12.39% year-on-year, while exports of polished diamonds increased by 11.03%. The penetration rates for both imported and exported cultivated diamonds improved, with export penetration at 9.61% and import penetration at 5.88% [12][18] - The natural diamond market saw a significant decline in rough diamond imports, down 15.66% year-on-year, while polished diamond exports remained stable with a decline of 27.43%. The price index for finished diamonds has slightly decreased, indicating a low demand recovery [12][21]